Evaluating Art Auction Results Pt. 5 – artmarketblog.com

Evaluating Art Auction Results Pt. 5 – artmarketblog.com

2. Percentage of lots sold by value continued

In part four of this series I looked at the second of two methods that auction houses use to calculate the percentage of lots sold by value. As I mentioned in part 4, the method of calculating the percentage of lost sold by value using the knockdown figure as the denominator in the equation is the most popular method but it too has it’s fair share of problems. The figure resulting from the knockdown method doesn’t really tell us that much about the success of the auction and what it does tell us is really of no use to anyone. By using the knockdown figure as an indication of the value of the works of art being auctioned as opposed to the estimate, the auction house is effectively reducing the chances of ending up with a low % sold by value figure even if every work is sold. Let me explain. If you use the estimate as an indication of the value of an artwork (estimate method) then the difference between the hammer price and the estimate could be quite significant which would result in a low % sold by value figure. Let’s say that you sold every single work in the auction but all the works sold for half their estimate. The % sold by value figure would be 50%. However, if you use the knockdown figure as an indication of the value of the works of art in the auction then because every work sold the % sold by value figure for the same auction would be 100%. Can you see the problem.

As I explained in part 4 of this series the knockdown figure is calculated by adding:

1. the hammer price of works that are sold
2. the highest bid for works that receive bids but are passed in
3. the lowest figure reached by the auctioneer before passing in a work that did not receive any bids

Because the hammer price is used as an indication of value for every work sold at the auction a 100% sold by lot rate will automatically result in a 100% sold by value rate regardless of how much the works sold for. Also, because each work of art in the auction is assigned a value regardless of whether it is sold or not the % sold by value figure is going to be considerably higher using the knockdown method for what one would consider to be a poor auction result than if calculated using the estimate method. eg:

hammer price/estimate

5000/8000
6000/9000
8000/13000
3000/5000
9000/15000
0 (unsold)/3000 (passed in)
0 (unsold)/7000 (passed in)
0 (unsold)/6000 (passed in)
0 (unsold)/8000 (passed in)
0 (unsold)/2000 (passed in)

total 31,000/estimate 76,000

Let’s say an auction has ten lots (as above), five of which are sold for a total of $31,000 against a total auction estimate of $76,000. The % sold by value figure would be 41% using the estimate method which would seem fair considering that only half the lots sold and those that did sell were sold for much less than the estimate. Now, calculating the % sold by value figure for the same auction would require that the estimate figures used in the estimate method be replaced with either the hammer price, the highest bid if the work was passed in or the lowest figure reached by the auctioneer for works that receive no bids at all. When these numbers are added in the results look like:

5000/5000
6000/6000
8000/8000
3000/3000
9000/9000
0/2000 (passed in)
0/5000 (passed in)
0/4000 (passed in)
0/6000 (passed in)
0/1000 (passed in)

total 31,000/knockdown 49,000

As you can see, by giving the unsold lots a value the percentage of lots sold by value would increase to 63% using the knockdown method which is considerably better than the 41% resulting from the estimate method. The benefits for the auction house of using the knockdown method as opposed to the estimate method are considerable but the knockdown method doesn’t really tell us as much about the auction as the estimate method does. The % sold by value figure calculated using the estimate method tells us whether the auction house was able to meet it’s own expectations and the expectations of the market whereas the % sold by value figure calculated using the knockdown method doesn’t really tell us much at all. Seriously !!. For an auction where all lots sell the knockdown method compares the sale price with the sale price. With an auction where not all lots sell the knockdown method compares the price people paid for the works that did sell with the price people paid for the works that did sell plus the supposed value (according to the auction house) of those that didn’t sell.

The one downside to using the knockdown method as opposed to the estimate method is that the % sold by lot figure can experience a significant increase from an exceptionally high price realised for a particular lot. If, say, a painting sold by $5 million dollars against an estimate of $1 -$2 million then the sold by value percentage for that particular lot would be 333% if calculated using the estimate method whereas it would only be 100% if calculated using the knockdown method.

In conclusion, I believe that using the:

1. the hammer price of works that are sold
2. the highest bid for works that receive bids but are passed in
3. the lowest figure reached by the auctioneer before passing in a work that did not receive any bids

as representative of the value of a work of art is misleading, deceiving and just plain silly.  I don’t believe that the highest bid received for works that are passed in is indicative of an artwork’s value.  I also have a problem with the use of the lowest figure reached by the auctioneer before passing in a work that did not receive any bids as an indicator of value because no-one knows how low the auctioneer would have had to go before a bid was made. The auctioneer is not going to go too low because the auction house doesn’t want to sell the work for too low a price. The lowest figure reached by the auctioneer before passing in a work that did not receive any bids is therefore not indicative of value if one is using the same philosophy as applied to the lots that did sell and the lots that received bids. In a nutshell the figure doesn’t really tell us the percentage of lots sold by value and it doesn’t really tell us anything about the success of the auction either.

See previous posts in this series here:

Evaluating Art Auction Results Pt. 4 – artmarketblog.com
http://artmarketblog.com/2009/03/04/evaluating-art-auction-results-pt-4-artmarketblogcom/

Evaluating Art Auction Results Pt. 3 – artmarketblog.com
http://artmarketblog.com/2009/02/27/evaluating-art-auction-results-pt-3-artmarketblogcom/

Evaluating Art Auction Results Pt. 2 – artmarketblog.com
http://artmarketblog.com/2009/02/19/evaluating-art-auction-results-pt-2-artmarketblogcom/

Evaluating Art Auction Results Pt. 1 – artmarketblog.com
http://artmarketblog.com/2009/02/12/evaluating-art-auction-results-pt-1-artmarketblogcom/

**Nicholas Forrest is an art market analyst, art critic and journalist based in Sydney, Australia. He is the founder of http://www.artmarketblog.com, writes the art column for the magazine Antiques and Collectibles for Pleasure and Profit and contributes to many other publications.

Evaluating Art Auction Results Pt. 3 – artmarketblog.com

Evaluating Art Auction Results Pt. 3 – artmarketblog.com

2. Percentage of lots sold by value

In part 2 of this series of posts on the real value of the statistics that are used to determine the success of a sale, I conducted an in depth analysis of the percentage of lots sold by number statistic. The other percentage figure often used by auction houses is the percentage of lots sold by value which, unlike percentage of lost sold by number, is rather complicated. There is also very little information relating to the way the percentage sold by value figure is calculated which made this post rather time consuming to put together. Other than the lack of information, one of the main problems with the sold by value figure is that there are variations in the way auction houses and other art market professionals calculate the figure. There is also an issue with determining exactly what the “value” in percentage sold by value refers to. This post will start to address these and other problems associated with the percentage sold by value figure as well as determining what the figure actually tells us and whether it is of any use.

As a result of my research I found that there are two formulas for calculating the sold by value percentage that are the most commonly used. The first formula I will analyse is probably the one that makes the most sense but is in fact NOT the “correct” formula and is NOT the formula used by most of the top art auction houses. If someone were to ask me to calculate the percentage sold by value for a particular auction, and I didn’t know how it was calculated, I would presume that I was being asked to compare the total estimated value of the works with the total value of the works sold. Because the value of the works of art in an auction is a matter of opinion, the auction house’s estimates should be used An example of the way this formula would work is:

(total sale value at hammer price) divided by (total sale estimate) x100

If the total sale estimate was $500,000 and the total sale value at hammer price was $400,000 then you would calculate 400,000/500,000 x100 which would equal 80% sold by value. If it was the other way round and the total sale value was 500,000 and the total sale estimate was 400,000 then the percentage sold by value would be 125%. At this point I will mention that if there are is an estimate range then the average of the high and low estimates should be used as the total sale estimate in the formula. One of the only references I could find to this particular percentage sold by value formula, other than the one I have written above, was on an auction results website which stated that:

% Sold by Value is based on total sales value at hammer price, including the premium, as a percentage of the average of the sum of the high estimates and low estimates for the sale. % Sold by Value can be greater than 100%

Although the formula in the reference above is essentially the same as the one I have been writing about it does have one minor differences that creates an even greater margin for error and a greater chance of confusion. The formula in the reference above includes the hammer price in the sale total which I did not include in my example because the buyers premium is not included in the estimates and therefore should not be included in the sale total. Including the buyers premium in the sale total increases the percentage of lots sold by value because the estimate does not include the buyers premium and therefore results in incorrect figures.

to be continued…….

**Nicholas Forrest is an art market analyst, art critic and journalist based in Sydney, Australia. He is the founder of http://www.artmarketblog.com, writes the art column for the magazine Antiques and Collectibles for Pleasure and Profit and contributes to many other publications.