2010 Art Market Status Report – 2nd half – artmarketblog.com

2010 Art Market Status Report – 2nd half – artmarketblog.com

The art market has found its self in a rather interesting predicament.  On the one hand, confidence in the art market has increased considerably since the beginning of the year.  On the other hand, the ever increasing likelihood of a major financial crisis has seen more cautious and selective buying.  Adding to the drama is the increasingly obvious lack of top quality paintings by the Old Masters, which the market is currently showing a very healthy appetite for.

On the 13^th of July an impression of Edvard Munch’s controversial work Madonna sold for an amazing £1,252,000 at Bonhams – twice its lower estimate of £500,000. This makes it the most expensive print ever sold in the UK and the second most expensive print in the world. At Bonham’s 19th Century Paintings sale held on the 22nd Apr 2010, ‘Female figure study’ , a drawing on paper by John Constable with a hidden history, sold for four times it pre-sale estimate to make £24,000. Also achieving success was an interesting  ‘Portrait of a Gentleman’ by George Dawe (British 1781-1829) which was the subject of fiercely competitive bidding and finally sold for £43,200 against a pre-sale estimate of £4,000-6,000.

At Christie’s Victorian & British Impressionist Pictures Including Drawings & Watercolours sale on the 16^th of June,  Sir George Clausen’s ‘Head of a young girl (Rose Grimsdale)’ made £505,250 against an estimate of 250,000 – 350,000 setting a new world auction record for a work on paper by the artist. The same sale also saw a new record for Archibald Thorburn with yet another work on paper titled ‘Grouse in flight’ which made £217,250 against an estimate of 60,000 – 80,000

At Christie’s 23 June 2010 auction of Impressionist and Modern Art the top price was achieved by ‘Portrait of Angel Fernández de Soto’, 1903, a Blue Period masterpiece by Pablo Picasso (1881-1973), which sold for £34,761,250 against an estimate of 30,000,000 – 40,000,000.  Another portrait titled ‘Frauenbildnis (Portrait of Ria Munk III)’, one of the last great female portraits painted by Gustav Klimt (1862-1918), sold for £18,801,250 against an estimate of £14 million to £18 million.

Yet more portraits achieved high prices at Christie’s Old Masters & 19th Century Art sale held on the 9^th of July at their South Kensington saleroom. Margaret Sarah Carpenter’s ‘Portrait of a young girl’, who is thought to be Henrietta Carpenter, reached £32,450 against an estimate of 7,000-10,000 and achieved a new world record price for the artist at auction. A work from the Studio of Sir Peter Lely titled ‘Portrait of King Charles II’ also fetched £32,450 against an estimate of 6,000-8,000.

Over at Sotheby’s the ‘An Exceptional Eye: A Private British Collection’ sale held on the 14^th of July saw a watercolour over pencil by John Robert Cozens titled ‘The Lake of Albano and Castel Gandolfo’ reach £2,393,250 against an estimate of 500,000 ‐ 700,000 –  the top price of the sale and a new record for the artist at auction.  The portrait miniatures performed particularly well with the Sotheby’s press release stating that “a very high price achieved for an early work by John Smart (lot 17, £56,450), and a record for a work by Bernard Lens (lot 10, Portrait of King Charles I, sold for £58,850)”

At Sotheby’s Impressionist & Modern Art Evening Sale held on the 22^nd of June, the top price paid was again for a portrait.  Edouard Manet’s ‘Portrait de Manet par lui-même, en buste (Manet à la palette)’ fetched £22,441,250 against an estimate of £20,000,000-30,000,000 –  a record for the artist at auction. The top-selling lot of the June Russian Paintings Day Sale was Boris Grigoriev’s oil on canvas Portrait of the artist’s son, Kirill, which sold for the sum of £253,250, above its high estimate of £200,000.  Another portrait, Alexander Evgenievich Yakovlev’s ‘Titi and Naranghe, Daughters of Chief Eki Bondo’, took top spot at the 7 June Important Russian Art Sale selling for £2,505,250 – more than triple the £700,000 – 900,000 estimate .  Sotheby’s sale of the long-lost art trove of Ambroise Vollard saw more records set for works on paper held in Paris on the 29^th of June. According to the Sotheby’s press release from the sale: “Key works among the highlights of the group were an extremely fine impression of Picasso’s celebrated 1904 etching ‘Le Repas frugal’ (another portrait), which more than doubled its high estimate of €300,000 to bring €720,750 (£584,078), the highest price of the sale. A monotype by Edgar Degas, ‘La Fête de la patronne’, circa 1878-79 soared past pre-sale estimates (€200,000-300,000) to bring €516,750. Paul Gauguin’s ‘Trois Têtes Tahitiennes ‘sold for €312,750 (£253,445) well above the estimate of €100,000 to €150,000 and a record was set for a print by Pierre-Auguste Renoir when ‘Le Chapeau Epinglé, Deuxième Planche’ more than tripled its high estimate of €80,000 to bring €252,750 (£204,822). Man Ray’s ‘Autoportrait solarié’ fetched €168,750 ($206,138)”

On the 2^nd of June at Sotheby’s in London, in the sale of 19th Century European Paintings, one of the finest figure paintings by Jean-Baptiste-Camille Corot ever to have appeared on the market was purchased by the Musée d’Art et d’Histoire in Geneva for £1,609,250, exceeding its pre-sale high estimate of £1.2 million.  According to Sotheby’s “‘Jeune femme à la fontaine’ enjoyed an exceptional early provenance before it was requisitioned during the Nazi period, and was recently restituted to the heirs of its erstwhile owners.”

The results that I have highlighted above give a good indication of the current market sentiment and the market trends that are likely to define the market for the near future.  To start with, the popularity of portraits is a major indication that buyers are seeking the safety of the academic and the scholarly.  With portraits in particular, the level of skill and talent of the artist is pretty much immediately obvious to even the most untrained eye. When it comes to fine art, and portraits in particular, I do not think that people use the term craftsmanship to describe the work carried out by some artists.  To accurately portray the physical attributes and the personality of the sitter is, in my opinion, a craft that requires skill, training and a healthy dose of talent.  When one adds the historical value and importance of portraiture, the appeal of a famous (or not so famous) face from history to an investor becomes even more apparent.

I have spoken about the concept of fine art as a form of currency in previous posts.  If ever there was a type of art that was more suited to being used as a form of currency, it would have to be portraiture.   The number of common features that most portraits share, combined with the ease with which one can judge and value a portrait based on intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics, makes the portrait a prime candidate for an art world currency.  As I have said before, scholarship is the key to successful art investment, and successful wealth preservation using art for that matter.  Portraits are usually afforded the honour of in depth scrutiny and attention by scholars and academics because of the information that portraits can provide about various branches of history.  For this reason, among others, portraits are given the sort of long term continued attention that constantly adds value.

The second trend that I have alluded to is a greater interest in works on paper – in particular original drawings and watercolours.  I personally of the opinion that the increased popularity of watercolour paintings, particularly those by British artists, is due to the greater interest in the art of the Victorian era which was the golden age of British watercolour painting. Although original works on paper, such as drawings and watercolours, are often looked upon as the less valuable mediums in the scheme of things, the tide can change very quickly as it has recently.  As well as the revival of interest in Victorian art, a shortage of major works by the Old Masters and the Impressionists has driven buyers to seek the qualities that they are looking for in other mediums and periods. An article titled ‘Young masters in an old game’ from The Guardian newspaper written by John Windsor in November 2009 sums up the situation surrounding works on paper perfectly with the following statement: “Taste is shifting from new, ill-conceived conceptual art of the Brit-pack variety – costing thousands but faltering at auction, towards old, traditional skill-based art……. but you do need to develop an eye for quality – the easy, confident line of a master draughtsman, the luminosity of a watercolourist’s washes.” It is a shame that the watercolour painting is considered the poorer cousin of the oil painting because there are so many amazing watercolours by some of the world’s greatest artists that do not receive the exposure that they deserve.

**Nicholas Forrest is an art market analyst, art critic and journalist based in Sydney, Australia. He is the founder of http://www.artmarketblog.com, writes the art column for the magazine Antiques and Collectibles for Pleasure and Profit and contributes to many other publications

Predicting Art Market Profit Potential Pt. 2 – artmarketblog.com

Predicting Art Market Profit Potential Pt. 2 – artmarketblog.com

Since posting part 1 of my Predicting Art Market Profit Potential posts I have had some people question whether it is possible to predict whether an artist will achieve market success before they actually do.  Unfortunately many people either don’t know about ArtFacts.net or don’t understand how it works which is why I am writing this post.   One person said that: “A successful artist with lots of exhibitions and fame, will certainly have an extensive auction sale record, whereas an unknown artist will not.”  I can understand where this person is coming from, but their statement is incorrect.  An artist who has been widely and extensively exhibited can have a strong primary market (galleries etc.) for their work and a virtually non existent secondary market (auctions etc. ) for their work.  In fact, I know of many contemporary artists whose works fetch considerable amounts of money on the primary market but have not had any of their works sold at auction or via any secondary market   Before an artist develops a strong secondary market they usually have to have developed a strong primary market which would mean having their work exhibited by galleries, at fairs and as part of group shows.  What ArtFacts.net does is utilise primary market data to establish how much attention an artist is receiving.  That primary market attention, if properly leveraged, should then be able to be turned into secondary market attention and increased secondary market value. According to ArtFacts.net “According to ArtFacts.net, “The career of an artist depends on the success of their exhibitions”. This is certainly true for the long term career of an artist. Because price data is rarely available for primary market transactions, ArtFacts.net have developed a ranking system that ranks artists according to how widely and extensively they are being exhibited and how prestigious the galleries/museums they are being exhibited at are.  Although some of the older/deceased artists will be having their work exhibited/sold on the secondary market, much of the data is for emerging contemporary artists whose work is being sold/exhibited on the primary market, and who don’t yet have a secondary market, which gives people the opportunity to use the data the ArtFacts.net have collected to make predictions regarding the future secondary market potential of an artist and their work. In order to provide some sort of context in which to place the more emerging artists, the ArtFacts.net Artist Ranking tool includes a large number of modern artists such as Warhol, Picasso, Richter, Nauman etc. who, as one would expect, occupy the top spots of the ranking.  By having the more senior artists to make comparisons with, it is much easier to put the success of the emerging artists into context and see how their career compares to the careers of artists who already have a strong and established secondary market.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with ArtFacts.net, the first of their Artist Ranking Tool was created in 1999 and has since undergone various adjustments and changes to make it is today.  The concept of ranking artists according to the amount of attention they and their work receives is not a new concept. According to the Getty Museum “Fascinated by the high prices achieved by contemporary (postwar) art, the German art critic Willi Bongard developed a system, known as the Kunstkompass, for ranking artists based on indicators of fame. Using data gathered from museums, commercial art galleries, and art journal reviews, Bongard calculated the success of an artist from year to year and compared it to gallery prices, thus determining the artist’s investment potential.”  The Kunstkompass top 100 contemporary artists continues to be published each year by Germany’s Capital magazine thanks to the efforts of Bongard’s widow, Linde Rohr-Bongard.  ArtFacts.net have taken Bongard’s concept one step further and introduced a recently developed  Career Analyser too which allows subscribers to see how an artist’s career has developed over the years and how their ranking has changed.  According to ArtFacts.net “The Career Analyser Tool examines an artist’s career in the ranking system from two further perspectives: the position in the ranking and the score for each exhibition – both results are calculated over the years. The last object of the analysis is the “Peer Group”: on the basis of the different ranking careers, we detect the artist’s artistic entourage that is the artists with whom he/she usually exhibits in group exhibitions.”  ArtFacts.net have also developed a separate Auction Analyser Tool in conjunction with ArtTactic.com which provides a detailed and in depth analysis of an artist’s career in the auction market.

With a total of just under 80,000 ranked artists, there is no shortage of information on ArtFacts.net so I urge everyone to take the time to check it out and purchase a subscription.  It will be well worth your while

Top 100 Ranking
http://www.artfacts.net/index.php/pageType/ranking/paragraph/4/lang/1

Artfacts.net stats:

19,513
exhibitors worldwide
166
countries
216,913
exhibitions worldwide
229,700
artists biographies
79,338
ranked artist
16,608
works of art
1,421
catalogs

**Nicholas Forrest is an art market analyst, art critic and journalist based in Sydney, Australia. He is the founder of http://www.artmarketblog.com, writes the art column for the magazine Antiques and Collectibles for Pleasure and Profit and contributes to many other publications